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IUFRO Unit 4.04.07 Risk Analysis: “Managing Risk in Uncertain Times”

IUFRO Unit 4.04.07 Risk Analysis: “Managing Risk in Uncertain Times”

21-23 April, 2016

Welcome to Freiburg and the 2016 Risk Analysis (IUFRO 4.04.07) Conference: “Managing Risk in Uncertain Times”. IUFRO 4.04.07 was formed in 2012 with the intention of being a multi-disciplinary Working Party, devoted to exploring the application of a risk analysis framework (or methodology) to a diverse collection of forest resource issues. At our inaugural meeting in Chandigarh, India, 60 attendees from 5 countries heard 30 oral presentation to address the issue of risk from invasive, exotic forest species. Over the next 3 days we will devote ourselves to a more multi-faceted issue: how to manage risk during a time of rapidly changing climatic conditions.

Forest management planning and decision making have been able, in the past, to give only slight consideration to risk and uncertainty. Empirically-derived knowledge regarding the factors that are important in achieving desired ecosystem goods and services was plentiful, and uncertainty in this knowledge was generally not thought to be an important consideration. Today, our climate is changing at an unprecedented rate, and this rapidly changing climate is dramatically increasing our level of uncertainty regarding the biotic and abiotic processes that will determine the delivery of desired ecosystem goods and services. Under a changing climate the frequency and severity of natural disturbances are changing, post-disturbance (including post-harvesting) silvics are changing, and our models that attempt to capture these relationships are increasingly complex and uncertain. Overlaying all is a basic uncertainty in the details of our future climate and society’s response to it. Forest resource management is developing novel approaches, such as adaptive management, to deal with the uncertainties. At the same time, risk perception by decision-makers and multiple stakeholders (with competing demands) will play a major role in determining management strategies.

We have 40 presenters from 18 countries to address this interesting and complex problem. We look forward to this opportunity to exchange ideas and form new collaborations.

David Gray and Rasoul Yousefpour


Please find further information here



Venue and Organisers




University of Freiburg
Chair of Forestry Economics and Forest Planning
room 200, on the 2nd floor
Tennenbacher Str. 4
79106 Freiburg, Germany


David Gray
Coordinator, IUFRO 4.04.07
Canadian Forest Service,
Natural Resources Canada
Email: david.gray@canada.ca
Phone: +1-506-452-3462

Rasoul Yousefpour
Deputy Coordinator, IUFRO 4.04.07
Chair of Forestry Economics and Forest Planning
Albert Ludwigs University
Email: rasoul.yousefpour@ife.uni-freiburg.de
Phone: +49-761-203-3688



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